Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
